A fraud called US Electoral System explained: Calm down folks, it’s nothing else but a staged drama between Biden and Trump

By Nick Duffy

While polls suggest  Joe Biden maintains a commanding lead over Donald Trump, the country’s electoral system is known for generating upsets, and in some cases even putting Presidents in power who got less votes than their opponents...

Joe Biden and Donald Trump in an Oscar winning act. The US electoral system already knows who is going to win between them

Here is everything you need to know about how the winner of the election is decided in US.

What is the electoral college?

After voters head to the polls to cast their votes for Donald Trump or Joe Biden, the winner is not confirmed based on who gets the most overall votes, but through a body known as the electoral college, which factors in the individual election outcomes across the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

More than a month after election day, at a meeting scheduled for 14 December, the result will be made official – when the group of 538 electors representing the states meet and cast their votes to formally elect the next President and Vice President.

A candidate needs to command the support of at least 270 electors, which is half the total plus one, to become President.

How are electoral college votes allocated and which states benefit?

Each state has a number of electors assigned roughly proportional to population, with larger states like California and Texas commanding a formidable 55 and 38 electoral college votes respectively. However, the system is intentionally generous to smaller states, who are guaranteed a minimum of three electors regardless of their population, giving them a greater say over the result.

While supporters of the system say the over-representation of smaller rural states prevents the country’s elections from being dominated by coastal population centres, it also creates imbalances in the system.

For example, Wyoming has three electors for its 580,000 residents, giving them one electoral college vote per roughly 193,000 people, while California’s 39,510,000 residents have 55 electors between them, which is one electoral college vote per 700,000 people.

However, it’s not just the smallest states that benefit. As states allocate electors based on a ‘first-past-the-post’ model where the candidate who gets the most votes claims all of the state’s votes for the electoral college, parties are incentivised to focus their efforts on battleground ‘swing states’ where they are able to pull off narrow victories and add to their total.

It is the results in these handful of states representing only around a third of the US population, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, Florida and Virginia, that are expected to decide the election, meaning they are often the focus of campaign visits, advertising spending and even the construction of policy.

The focus on swing states comes at the expense of areas dominated by one of the major parties, as candidates have little incentive to pile on voters in places where they don’t gain electoral college votes for doing so.

How often does the electoral college change the election result?

While Presidents such as Barack Obama have taken office by wining both the electoral college and the popular vote, there have been four occasions in history in which a President has won election despite getting less overall votes than their opponent.

The two modern examples are in 2000, when George W Bush carried off a narrow and contentious electoral college victory over Al Gore despite getting 500,000 fewer votes, and in 2016, when Donald Trump prevailed over Hillary Clinton despite getting three million fewer votes overall.

What happens if there is a tie?

In theory, it is possible that each candidate will get a total of exactly 269 electoral college votes. In the event of a tie, which last happened in 1800, the Constitution sets out a procedure for the President to be elected by a vote in the House of Representatives, and the Vice President by a vote in the Senate.

Although the Democrats currently have an overall majority in the House, each state delegation would get only one vote under the process, favouring the Republicans who control 26 state delegations.

The Republicans also hold an overall majority in the Senate, meaning both Donald Trump and Mike Pence have an in-built advantage and are likely to be returned in the event of a tie.

Could anything else go wrong?

The result of the election could also theoretically be swayed by faithless electors, electoral college voters picked by states who simply disregard their election results, and cast votes for someone else entirely.

Electors are typically picked from state officials, party leaders and activists, but rebellions are not unheard of. In 2016, five electors who were meant to vote for Hillary Clinton and two who were meant to cast votes for Donald Trump backed other candidates, with Colin Powell, John Kasich, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Faith Spotted Eagle all receiving protest votes.

While far from large enough of a rebellion to sway the outcome of the election on that occasion, it is entirely possible that a candidate could be deprived of a single-digit electoral college victory by faithless electors rebelling or casting votes for an opponent.

There is no federal law prohibiting electors from going rogue, though the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that states are able to enforce laws that bind electors to vote a certain way.

Why has the Electoral College never been abolished?

While often criticised for its archaic rules and tendency to skew election results, the Electoral College system has survived more than 200 years of US history.

Any move to abolish the system in favour of a different model would need a Constitutional amendment, which requires a two-thirds majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as support from 38 out of the 50 states.

The high barrier for amending the Constitution prevents changes that do not attract broad bipartisan support, and as both Republicans and some swing state Democrats have signalled their opposition to abolition of the Electoral College, the system is unlikely to be changed any time soon.

However, there is an effort to effectively circumvent parts of the system without the need to change the Constitution, known as the national popular vote interstate compact.

The plan, first mooted in 2006, would see a coalition of states that control a majority of electoral college votes pledge to back the candidate that wins the popular vote nationally, turning the election into an effective first-past-the-post system by proxy.

To date, the plan has been backed by 15 states that control a total of 196 electoral college votes between them, well short of the 270 votes needed for it to come into effect.

The compact, backed by many Democrats but opposed by Republicans who often benefit from disparities in the electoral college, is untested in the courts and would likely face a legal challenge if ever put into practice.

source: inews.co.uk